Updated 27 August 2026 with official IRCC figures released to the House of Commons immigration committee.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has now put official numbers on Canada's study permit crackdown. In materials prepared for the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration, IRCC confirms the refusal rate for new study permit applications reached 59% across 2025 (up from 52% in 2024) and stood at 62% as of 31 January 2026. Refusals of study permit extensions remain low at about 10%.
The official numbers
- 2024: 52% of new study permit applications refused
- 2025: 59% refused
- As of 31 Jan 2026: 62% refused (new permits); ~10% for extensions
Independent analyses have put the figure even higher — ICEF Monitor's analysis of IRCC processing data reported a refusal rate of around 65% for applications processed in 2025 — but the 59–62% range is IRCC's own published figure. Either way, roughly three in five applicants are now being refused.
Arrivals have collapsed under the cap
IRCC says the cap "is working": Canada welcomed about 115,385 new international students in 2025 — 61% fewer than in 2024. The total study permit holder population fell 26% in a year, from roughly 928,000 at the end of 2024 to about 691,000 at the end of 2025. For 2026, IRCC plans to issue up to 408,000 study permits, of which only 155,000 are for newly arriving students.
College vs university: a massive gap
The refusal rate is not uniform across institutions:
- College applicants: substantially higher refusal rates, reflecting policy targeting of institutions with poor post-graduation outcomes
- University applicants: meaningfully better approval odds — universities now account for 58% of public-institution permit holders, up from 44% in 2023
Indian students hardest hit
Indian students — who historically comprised around 40% of Canada's international student population — have seen the steepest decline. In Q2 2025, approximately four in five Indian applicants received refusals, according to BorderPass data. This represents a staggering shift from approval rates above 60% just two years earlier.
Why is Canada doing this?
Canada introduced a cap on study permit applications in 2024, driven by concerns about housing pressure, labour market impacts, and compliance issues at some private colleges. The government's stated goal is to reduce Canada's temporary resident population to under 5%. IRCC expects refusal rates "to stabilize over time" as applicants and institutions adapt to the tighter rules — but has not said when.
What can applicants do?
- Apply to a recognised university rather than a private college
- Write a strong Letter of Explanation (LOE) demonstrating genuine academic intent and ties to home country
- Ensure financial documentation meets the threshold (CAD $22,895 in living costs as of September 2025, on top of tuition and travel)
- Apply early in the intake cycle before permit allocations are exhausted
- Work with an RCIC-registered immigration consultant or experienced education consultancy