Updated 24 September 2026 with the latest IRCC processing data for January–May 2026.
Canada's study permit refusal rate is coming down from its peak. Analysis of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) processing data published on 3 September 2026 shows the approval rate for new study permit applications (all study levels, excluding extensions) averaged 47% across January–May 2026 — meaning roughly 53% were refused. That compares with a 62% refusal rate as of 31 January 2026, the figure IRCC gave to the House of Commons immigration committee earlier this year.
The trend through 2026
- 2024: 52% of new study permit applications refused (IRCC)
- 2025: 59% refused (IRCC)
- As of 31 Jan 2026: 62% refused (IRCC, new permits); ~10% for extensions
- Jan–May 2026: ~53% refused — approval rate averaged 47%, versus 36% in the same period of 2025
The month-by-month direction matters more than the average. Approval rates ran higher in every month of January–May 2026 than in the equivalent month of 2025, rising from just under 38% in February to 57% in May. IRCC approved just under 33,800 new study permits across all study levels in those five months.
Fewer applications, better odds
Part of the improvement reflects a smaller, more self-selected applicant pool rather than a policy loosening. Application volumes have fallen sharply under the cap, and the applicants still coming forward are more likely to hold a Provincial Attestation Letter, strong finances and a university offer. Approval rates by level remain uneven: earlier 2026 data showed university postgraduate applicants approved at roughly 49% and university undergraduates at 44%, against 30% at college level and 13% for vocational programmes.
The cap is still tightening
None of this signals an easing of Canadian policy. For 2026 IRCC plans to issue up to 408,000 study permits — a 7% reduction on the 2025 target — of which only 155,000 go to newly arriving students, with 309,670 application spaces allocated under the PAL/TAL cap. Provincial allocations remain capped and post-graduation work permit rules were tightened earlier in the year.
What this means for applicants
- Odds have improved from the early-2026 low, but roughly one in two new applications is still refused
- University-level study continues to carry materially better approval odds than college or vocational programmes
- A Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) or Territorial Attestation Letter (TAL) is required for most applicants
- Financial documentation must meet the current threshold on top of tuition and travel costs
- Apply early in the intake cycle, before provincial allocations are exhausted
- Work with an RCIC-registered immigration consultant or an experienced education consultancy
Sources
- ApplyBoard ApplyInsights — Latest Canadian Student Visa Data Reveals Emerging Stabilization (3 September 2026, IRCC data, Jan–May 2026)
- ApplyBoard ApplyInsights — New Canadian Post-Secondary Study Permit Approval Rates Jumped 10 Percentage Points in Early 2026
- IRCC — 2026 provincial and territorial allocations under the international student cap
- IRCC — CIMM committee materials: International Students